问题

Say I want to put a custom prior on two variables a and b in PyMC, e.g.:

p(a,b)∝(a+b)^(−5/2)

(for the motivation behind this choice of prior, see this answer)

Can this be done in PyMC? If so how?

As an example, I would like to define such prior on a and b in the model below.

import pymc as pm

# ...
# Code that defines the prior: p(a,b)∝(a+b)^(−5/2)
# ...

theta   = pm.Beta("prior", alpha=a, beta=b)

# Binomials that share a common prior
bins = dict()
for i in xrange(N_cities):
    bins[i] = pm.Binomial('bin_{}'.format(i), p=theta,n=N_trials[i],  value=N_yes[i], observed=True)

mcmc = pm.MCMC([bins, ps])

Update

Following John Salvatier's advice, I try the following (note that I am in PyMC2, although I would be happy to switch to PyMC3), but my questions are:

What should I import so that I can properly inherit from Continuous?
In PyMC2, do I still need to stick to Theano notation?

Finally, how can I later tell my Beta distribution that alpha and beta have a prior from this multivariate distribution?

import pymc.Multivariate.Continuous

class CustomPrior(Continuous): """ p(a,b)∝(a+b)^(−5/2)

:Parameters:
    None

:Support:
    2 positive floats (parameters to a Beta distribution)
"""
def __init__(self, mu, tau, *args, **kwargs):
    super(CustomPrior, self).__init__(*args, **kwargs)

def logp(self, a,b):


    return np.log(math.power(a+b),-5./2)

回答1:

In PyMC2, the trick is to put the a and b parameters together:

# Code that defines the prior: p(a,b)∝(a+b)^(−5/2)
@pm.stochastic
def ab(power=-2.5, value=[1,1]):
    if np.any(value <= 0):
        return -np.Inf
    return power * np.log(value[0]+value[1])

a = ab[0]
b = ab[1]

This notebook has a full example.

回答2:

Yup! It's quite possible, and in fact quite straightforward.

If you're in PyMC 2, check out the documentation on the creation of stochastic variables.

@pymc.stochastic(dtype=int)
def switchpoint(value=1900, t_l=1851, t_h=1962):
    """The switchpoint for the rate of disaster occurrence."""
    if value > t_h or value < t_l:
        # Invalid values
        return -np.inf
    else:
        # Uniform log-likelihood
        return -np.log(t_h - t_l + 1)

If you're in PyMC 3, have a look at multivariate.py. Keep in mind the values passed in to init and logp are all theano variables, not numpy arrays. Is that enough to get you started?

For example, this is the Multivariate Normal distribution

class MvNormal(Continuous):
    """
    Multivariate normal

    :Parameters:
        mu : vector of means
        tau : precision matrix

    .. math::
        f(x \mid \pi, T) = \frac{|T|^{1/2}}{(2\pi)^{1/2}} \exp\left\{ -\frac{1}{2} (x-\mu)^{\prime}T(x-\mu) \right\}

    :Support:
        2 array of floats
    """
    def __init__(self, mu, tau, *args, **kwargs):
        super(MvNormal, self).__init__(*args, **kwargs)
        self.mean = self.median = self.mode = self.mu = mu
        self.tau = tau

    def logp(self, value):
        mu = self.mu
        tau = self.tau

        delta = value - mu
        k = tau.shape[0]

        return 1/2. * (-k * log(2*pi) + log(det(tau)) - dot(delta.T, dot(tau, delta)))

来源：https://stackoverflow.com/questions/23198247/custom-priors-in-pymc

标签

python

statsmodels

pymc

Custom priors in PyMC

问题

Update

回答1:

回答2: