I'd say that spring webmvc is pretty minimalistic and IMHO it's far from overkill.
You don't have to include the whole spring Framework to do your things. To start a webmvc webapp you need ~3-4 jars IIRC.
Don't underestimate the advantages of DI in regard of internal structure and testability.
I'd go for Spring WebMVC + JSP maybe combined with sitemesh. Later when you realize that you have more complicated stuff to do you could add Spring-Webflow and so on.