Since I uninstalled 32 bit java and installed 64 bit jdk and jre, xamarin can no longer find the jdk. The xamarin build file generates the following errror...
Ok silly me. Xamarin doesn't just require java, it requires 32 bit java. 32 and 64 bit javas can live happily together. The JAVA_HOME can point to the 64 bit, so long as the 32 is present. Reinstalling 32 bit java fixed the problem. Hopefully this record of my silliness will be useful to others :-)