I started working on a new app and I wanted to use all of the new iOS5 features (including storyboard) but I\'m afraid to limit my app to iOS5 users only.
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About two months after launch, the author of Instapaper says that just short of 50% of users were on at least iOS 5.
Nearly three months later, I would say that's a good sign that by the time your app is ready for release, requiring iOS5 is pretty safe. (Certainly that's what I'm doing.)
But ultimately it's a judgement call. Apple don't release numbers so, to some extent, you're guessing. It doesn't matter whether all users have iOS5. What matters is whether the people who are likely to buy your app will have iOS5.