Most of the conversations around undefined behavior (UB) talk about how there are some platforms that can do this, or some compilers do that.
What i
This is basically a question about a specific C++ implementation. "Can I assume that a specific behavior, undefined by the standard, will continue to be handled by ($CXX) on platform XYZ in the same way under circumstances UVW?"
I think you either should clarify by saying exactly what compiler and platform you are working with, and then consult their documentation to see if they make any guarantees, otherwise the question is fundamentally unanswerable.
The whole point of undefined behavior is that the C++ standard doesn't specify what happens, so if you are looking for some kind of guarantee from the standard that it's "ok" you aren't going to find it. If you are asking whether the "community at large" considers it safe, that's primarily opinion based.
Once the UB has manifested for that architecture and that compiler and you have tested, can't you assume that from then on whatever the compiler did with the UB the first time, it will do that every time?
Only if the compiler makers guarantee that you can do this, otherwise, no, it's wishful thinking.
Let me try to answer again in a slightly different way.
As we all know, in normal software engineering, and engineering at large, programmers / engineers are taught to do things according to a standard, the compiler writers / parts manufacturers produce parts / tools that meet a standard, and at the end you produce something where "under the assumptions of the standards, my engineering work shows that this product will work", and then you test it and ship it.
Suppose you had a crazy uncle jimbo and one day, he got all his tools out and a whole bunch of two by fours, and worked for weeks and made a makeshift roller coaster in your backyard. And then you run it, and sure enough it doesn't crash. And you even run it ten times, and it doesn't crash. Now jimbo is not an engineer, so this is not made according to standards. But if it didn't crash after even ten times, that means it's safe and you can start charging admission to the public, right?
To a large extent what's safe and what isn't is a sociological question. But if you want to just make it a simple question of "when can I reasonably assume that no one would get hurt by me charging admission, when I can't really assume anything about the product", this is how I would do it. Suppose I estimate that, if I start charging admission to the public, I'll run it for X years, and in that time, maybe 100,000 people will ride it. If it's basically a biased coin flip whether it breaks or not, then what I would want to see is something like, "this device has been run a million times with crash dummies, and it never crashed or showed hints of breaking." Then I could quite reasonably believe that if I start charging admission to the public, the odds that anyone will ever get hurt are quite low, even though there are no rigorous engineering standards involved. That would just be based on a general knowledge of statistics and mechanics.
In relation to your question, I would say, if you are shipping code with undefined behavior, which no one, either the standard, the compiler maker, or anyone else will support, that's basically "crazy uncle jimbo" engineering, and it's only "okay" if you do vastly increased amounts of testing to verify that it meets your needs, based on a general knowledge of statistics and computers.