I have started a WinForms project a few weeks ago and as I did not really know what features I wanted, I just added them along the way. This now caused a horrible mess where
Our rule of thumb is to lean towards MVC for most websites due to the stateless nature of the web. Unless you're trying to provide a very rich web experience and bring in silverlight, then you should go with MVVM. XAML goes hand to hand with MVVM and can be your smart client choice as well (or a nice MVCP pattern).
True MVC is almost impossible to uphold in any other circumstance due to the fact that controllers are suppose to handle all input. Most non web architecture has controls that will provide this for you. In fact, most say that ASP.NET MVC is a hybrid MVC anyways but it's very good in my experience.