In his answer @Grundlefleck explains how to check whether a directory exists or not. I tried some to use this inside a makefile as follow:
foo.b
I use the following to detect if a file or a directory exists and act upon it :
$(if $(filter expected,$(wildcard *)), the expected file exists)
With your request :
.PHONY: ~/Dropbox
~/Dropbox:
echo "Dir exists"
foo.bak: foo.bar | $(if $(filter ~/Dropbox,$(wildcard ~/*)), the expected file exists)
Which can further be simplify :
foo.bak: foo.bar | $(wildcard ~/Dropbox)