Specifically, if I have a series of if...else if statements, and I somehow know beforehand the relative probability that each statement will evalua
Put them in whatever logical order you like. Sure, the branch may be slower, but branching should not be the majority of work your computer is doing.
If you are working on a performance critical portion of code, then certainly use logical order, profile guided optimization and other techniques, but for general code, I think its really more of a stylistic choice.