I read an article a while ago that talked about locking down every class as much as possible. Make everything final and private unless you have an immediate need to expose some data or functionality to the outside world. It's always easy to expand the scope to be more permissible later on, but not the other way around. First consider making as many things as possible final which will make choosing between private and protected much easier.
- Make all classes final unless you need to subclass them right away.
- Make all methods final unless you need to subclass and override them right away.
- Make all method parameters final unless you need to change them within the body of the method, which is kinda awkward most of the times anyways.
Now if you're left with a final class, then make everything private unless something is absolutely needed by the world - make that public.
If you're left with a class that does have subclass(es), then carefully examine every property and method. First consider if you even want to expose that property/method to subclasses. If you do, then consider whether a subclass can wreak havoc on your object if it messed up the property value or method implementation in the process of overriding. If it's possible, and you want to protect your class' property/method even from subclasses (sounds ironic, I know), then make it private. Otherwise make it protected.
Disclaimer: I don't program much in Java :)