Horse for courses. To state my bias; I'm a developer first, so I'm mainly concerned with giving the users a working application.
I've worked on systems with natural keys, and had to spend a lot of time making sure that value changes would ripple through.
I've worked on systems with only surrogate keys, and the only drawback has been a lack of denormalised data for partitioning.
Most traditional PL/SQL developers I have worked with didn't like surrogate keys because of the number of tables per join, but our test and production databases never raised a sweat; the extra joins didn't affect the application performance. With database dialects that don't support clauses like "X inner join Y on X.a = Y.b", or developers who don't use that syntax, the extra joins for surrogate keys do make the queries harder to read, and longer to type and check: see @Tony Andrews post. But if you use an ORM or any other SQL-generation framework you won't notice it. Touch-typing also mitigates.
