I am looking for a simple shell (+curl) check that would evaluate as true or false if an URL exists (returns 200) or not.
I find wget to be a better tool for this than CURL; there's fewer options to remember and you can actually check for its truth value in bash to see if it succeeded or not by default.
if wget --spider http://google.com 2>/dev/null; then
echo "File exists"
else
echo "File does not exist"
fi
The --spider
option makes wget just check for the file instead of downloading it, and 2> /dev/null
silences wget's stderr output.