The target language is C/C++ and the program has only to work on Linux, but platform independent solutions are preferred obviously. I run Xorg, XVideo and OpenGL are available.<
the "how many fps can i expect" question can not be answered seriously. not even if you name the grandpa of the guy who did the processor layouting. it depends on tooooo many variables.
this could go on for ever, the answer depends absolutly on your algorithm. if you stick to the opengl approach you could also try different extensions (http://www.opengl.org/registry/specs/NV/pixel_data_range.txt comes to mind for example), to see if it fits your needs better; although the already mentioned glTexSubImage() method is quite fast.