SQL - calculate forecast average

问题

I'm trying to calculate a forecast of sales based on the 3 previous months which either can be actuals or forecast.

company_id    Year    Month    Actuals    Forecast 
  123456      2014      1         10     
  123456      2014      2         15     
  123456      2014      3         17     
  123456      2014      4                 14.00
  123456      2014      5                 15.33 
  123456      2014      6                 15.44
  123456      2014      7                 14.93

Month 4 = (10+15+17)/3
Month 5 = (15+17+14)/3
Month 6 = (17+14+15.33)/3
Month 7 = (14+15.33+15.44)/3

Let's say I want to calculate the forecast for the next 18 months for each company.

I'm looking at the data for last year. Some companies has e.g. 2 months of data and other 12 months and so on.

I have searched and found many different solutions but all of them only takes the actuals into account.

I think I have to make a recursive CTE, but I can't figure it out.

Please help :)

回答1:

So you want moving average based on previous moving average :) I think that when programming on SQL Server one always have to realize which tasks are more suited to set-based approach and which are more general row-by-row approach. Your task, if you ask me, is perfect for simple row-by-row processing. Here's an example

declare @temp table ([Month] int, Actual decimal(29, 2), Forecast decimal(29, 2))
declare @month int

insert into @temp (
    [Month], Actual
)
select 1, 10 union all
select 2, 15 union all
select 3, 17

select @month = isnull(max([Month]) + 1, 1) from @temp

while @month <= 18
begin
    insert into @temp (
        [Month], Forecast
    )
    select
        @month, avg(a.value) as Forecast
    from (
        select top 3 isnull(Actual, Forecast) as value
        from @temp
        order by [Month] desc
    ) as a

    select @month = @month + 1
end

select * from @temp

回答2:

While I was trying to answer your question, I had another question which led to more answers to your questions: Calculate forecast average using recursive CTE

Fiddle: http://sqlfiddle.com/#!6/9ac4a/12/0

WITH T AS
(
    SELECT 1 AS [month], CAST(10 AS DECIMAL(28,2)) AS [forecast], CAST(-5 AS DECIMAL(28,2)) AS three_months_ago_forecast, CAST(9 AS decimal(28,2)) AS two_months_ago_forecast, CAST(26 AS decimal(28,2)) as one_month_ago_forecast
    UNION ALL
    SELECT 2,CAST(15 AS DECIMAL(28,2)), CAST(9 AS decimal(28,2)), CAST(26 AS decimal(28,2)), CAST(10 AS DECIMAL(28,2))
    UNION ALL 
    SELECT 3,CAST(17 AS DECIMAL(28,2)), CAST(26 AS decimal(28,2)), CAST(10 AS DECIMAL(28,2)), CAST(15 AS DECIMAL(28,2))
),
LT AS -- LastForecast
(
    SELECT *
    FROM T
    WHERE [month] = 3
),
FF AS -- Future Forecast
(
    SELECT *
    FROM LT

    UNION ALL

    SELECT 
        FF.[month] + 1 AS [month], 
        CAST( (FF.forecast * 4 - FF.three_months_ago_forecast) / 3 AS decimal(28,2)) AS forecast,
        FF.two_months_ago_forecast as three_months_ago_forecast,
        FF.one_month_ago_forecast as two_months_ago_forecast,
        FF.forecast as one_month_ago_forecast
    FROM FF
    WHERE
        FF.[month] < 12

)
SELECT * FROM T
WHERE [month] < 3
UNION ALL
SELECT * FROM FF

来源：https://stackoverflow.com/questions/35136630/sql-calculate-forecast-average