Using Bayes formula
问题 suppose the cave system contains 100 caves, of which 90 caves are without a hidden treasure and 10 caves contain a buried gold object. In 70% of the caves with a hidden treasure, the Wumpus has left behind his usual stench from digging about and bumping into walls. In the remaining caves with hidden treasures in them, the Wumpus has left no trace, i.e. they are non-smelly. Furthermore, all the caves without a hidden treasure are free from smell, since the Wumpus has fled the cave system. The